MacMarket Making and Reversal on the Stock Exchange – Victor Niederhoffer

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Abstract

The accurate record of The accurate record of stock marketstock market ticker prices displays striking properties of dependence. We find for example that after a decline of 1/8 of a point between transactions, an advance on the next transaction is three times as likely as a decline. Further examinations disclose that after two price changes in the same direction, the odds in favor of a continuation in that direction are almost twice as great as after two changes in opposite directions. ticker prices displays striking properties of dependence. We find for example that after a decline of 1/8 of a point between transactions, an advance on the next transaction is three times as likely as a decline. Further examinations disclose that after two price changes in the same direction, the odds in favor of a continuation in that direction are almost twice as great as after two changes in opposite directions.

The dealer (specialist) in a stock typically quotes the market by announcing the highest buy order and lowest sell order carried on his book. But these orders tend to be concentrated at integers  halves , quarters and odd eighths in descending preference. This non-uniform distribution of orders produces some non-random effects in stock price motion. These properties of the stock market are typical of markets in many second-hand goods.The dealer (specialist) in a stock typically quotes the market by announcing the highest buy order and lowest sell order carried on his book. But these orders tend to be concentrated at integers  halves , quarters and odd eighths in descending preference. This non-uniform distribution of orders produces some non-random effects in stock price motion. These properties of the stock market are typical of markets in many second-hand goods.

Author: Victor Niederhoffer

VICTOR NIEDERHOFFER’s VICTOR NIEDERHOFFER’s storied career as a speculator spans more than twenty-five years. In the introduction to Practical Speculation, Vic describes the rollercoaster his hedge fund rode from No. 1 in 1996 to the debacle in 1997 that forced him to close his fund. Rather than giving up, he wrote this book “figuring that by trying to teach others, I might learn something myself,” apparently with some success. Niederhoffer was ranked No. 6 for the year 2003 among 200 managed futures hedge funds in the TASS database, and is No. 4 in the performance rankings through mid-2004. Niederhoffer is the author of the critically acclaimed Education of a Speculator as well as numerous groundbreaking academic articles about markets. A magna cum laude graduate of Harvard, he holds a doctorate in economics from the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business. He is a five-time national champion in squash and claimed the world title in 1976.storied career as a speculator spans more than twenty-five years. In the introduction to Practical Speculation, Vic describes the rollercoaster his hedge fund rode from No. 1 in 1996 to the debacle in 1997 that forced him to close his fund. Rather than giving up, he wrote this book “figuring that by trying to teach others, I might learn something myself,” apparently with some success. Niederhoffer was ranked No. 6 for the year 2003 among 200 managed futures hedge funds in the TASS database, and is No. 4 in the performance rankings through mid-2004. Niederhoffer is the author of the critically acclaimed Education of a Speculator as well as numerous groundbreaking academic articles about markets. A magna cum laude graduate of Harvard, he holds a doctorate in economics from the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business. He is a five-time national champion in squash and claimed the world title in 1976.

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